by John Wiedemann

It’s a new season with new drivers, new rules and new tools as the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup teams take to the Daytona International Speedway to kick off the 2018 season with the Daytona 500.

One can only look at the video and images from last year’s Daytona 500 to see what it means to win the prestigious race. Driver Kurt Busch and crew chief Tony Gibson showed how emotional it was for two longtime competitors in stock car racing to accomplish the feat of being a Daytona 500 champion.

This season a new inspection station called “Hawkeye”, hand-out air guns and five pit members over the wall are some of the changes intended to level the playing field between the top and bottom teams. Teams have talked about how the new “Hawkeye” inspection will eliminate the massaging areas of the car that were not checked by the old inspection system. “Hawkeye” sees all.

The NASCAR issued pit guns will eliminate the advantage of the top teams who reportedly spent seven figures on gun development. Couple the new air guns with the five members over the wall and pitstops will have a whole new feel, times will be down and confusion will probably cause even slower stops as the teams figure out the new rules.

Then there are new drivers to the series and drivers on new teams this year. With top restrictor plate racers and two-time Daytona 500 winners Matt Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt Jr not in the field, who will be the drivers that step up?

Team Penske may have the best shot at the Daytona 500 trophy with a loaded lineup. Brad Keselowski has yet to win the 500 but he and teammate Joey Logano, who has won the 500, are amongst the top restrictor plate races. Add new teammate Ryan Blaney, who won a Duel race, and the team is strong. Blaney will start the race in third with Logano behind him in fifth. Keselowski will start in the back of the pack due to having to go to a backup car after his Duel wreck. Expect Keselowski to join his teammates at the front pretty quickly. My pick to win the Daytona 500 is Brad Keselowski.

Last year’s winner Kurt Busch is joined by his teammates Kevin Harvick (2007 Daytona 500 winner), Clint Bowyer and newcomer Aric Almirola. A top Ford team last season, along with Penske, this team should also be added to the list of favorites. Fords were quick last season at the big tracks but struggled at the popular intermediate tracks. We will have to wait a bit to see if they have improved over the off season on the other tracks, but when they are at a restrictor plate tracks they will need to make the most of it.

The Toyota teams of Joe Gibbs Racing and Furniture Row Racing were the class of the series with Martin Truex Jr. dominating the season in wins and points and JGR drivers starting slow but finishing strong. With a new body in 2017 the Toyota teams have now had a year of data to look at in the off season and see if they can make their cars even better that what they were at the end of last season. The only issue they seemed to have was competing with the Fords at Daytona and Talladega. We will see this weekend if they can pass the Fords.

Speaking of Fords, again, the one guy that was the best at superspeedways was Ricky Stenhouse Jr who won at Talladega in the spring and again at the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona. Stenhouse had only two other top five finishes last season and has a career best 7th place finish at the Daytona 500, but he has the confidence after his wins last year and should be a factor in the race this weekend.

Chevrolets have a new body and are hoping to have their Camaro find the success that the Toyotas found last season. At Daytona the team leading the Chevy charge will be Kyle Larson and Jamie McMurray for Chip Ganassi racing. Larson may have won the 500 last season but ran out of fuel on the closing laps and teammate McMurray won the Daytona 500 in 2010 and has always been considered a smart plate racer. Hendrick Motorsports has also made noise at Daytona with Earnhardt Jr’s replacement Alex Bowman on the pole and Chase Elliott winning a Duel race again this season. Oh yeah, they also have that guy named Jimmie Johnson, he’s pretty good, and they have a rookie that wins everything – William Byron. Don’t forget about Richard Childress Racing with two drivers, Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman (2008 Daytona 500 winner) as well as Petty Enterprises driver Darrell “Bubba” Wallace. Either of those three would not be a surprise to take the prize.

Of course, there will be wrecks including probably one “big one” and that factor brings in the “anyone in the field can win” mentality. That being said, it’s the guys and gals that know how to run up front who will be the ones to watch and probably the one’s at the end fighting for the checkers.

Happy Daytona Day!

John Wiedemann

John Wiedemann is the owner, editor and developer of the RacingNation.com website.

A motorsports fan from his earliest memories, John started going to local short tracks and the Milwaukee Mile with his parents, brother and sister. John enjoys drivers racing side by side and battling for the same piece of real estate on the racetrack as much as he appreciates the technical aspects of the sport.

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by John Wiedemann

Four drivers will race one more race for the championship.

All of the four drivers have been here before and three of them have won championships.

Who will win it?

Let’s take a look at the contenders…

Martin Truex Jr.
The popular favorite to win the title is Martin Truex Jr. Truex has been the top driver throughout the regular season and the playoffs. Additionaly, there has been no one better on the intermediate mile and a half tracks this season. Truex and the Furniture Row team excelled at accumulating stage points throughout the season by winning 19 stages as well as picking up playoff points with a series leading seven race wins, six of them at 1.5 mile tracks. Even though Truex hasn’t finished better than 12th in the last three races at Homestead, this has been a season of dominance on the 1.5 mile tracks and recent success at those tracks is what should be looked at. The only one of the three drivers without a championship in the Cup Series, Truex explains, “Than means it’s my turn.” That just may be true.

Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch and the Joe Gibbs Racing team had a slow start to the season. But, in the second half, Busch turned it on and won five races including three in the playoffs. This is the third time that Busch has been in the Championship 4 and he captured his title in 2015 with a win at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. Along with sister team Furniture Row Racing, the Toyotas of Joe Gibbs Racing have consistently shown speed at the mile and a half tracks like Homestead. Busch finished sixth last season at Homestead, losing a championship to Jimmie Johnson.

Kevin Harvick
2014 Champion, Kevin Harvick comes to Homestead-Miami Speedway on a bit of a hot streak. In the four mile and a half tracks in the playoffs, Harvick finished 8th, 3rd (twice) and won at the most recent one in Texas. In that Texas race he out-dueled Martin Truex Jr for the win. Statistically, since 2014, Harvick has had the best average finish at intermediate tracks, but he trails in wins behind Truex, Brad Keselowski and last season’s champion Jimmie Johnson. Harvick won the 2014 race at Homestead to capture his championship and may need to repeat that result to become champion again.

Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski is probably the least favored of the four contenders for the championship. But to ignore him would be a mistake. Keselowski has not had the speed that he would like all season long, even “tweeting” about how the Toyotas had a huge advantage throughout the season. But Keselowski is still here in the Championship 4 somehow. The tenacity that Keselowski has is like an old-school racer who will do anything to win. Keselowski knew what he needed to do last weekend to move to the Championship round and he made it happen. Ignoring last year’s race, Keselowski has been solid at Homestead with finishes of third in 2014 and 2015 as well as a sixth place run in 2013. Don’t count Keselowski out, he will be in the mix.

My Prediction
I have to go with the favorite Martin Truex Jr. for the win. Truex has been money on the intermediate tracks and I believe this is his year. The race will probably come down to a battle between Truex and Kyle Busch and I am predicting Busch to finish second just a bit behind Truex. I see Harvick leading early but fading to a top five finish at the end. As much as I think Keselowski the driver can contend, I see the car not being able to give him what he needs and a top ten-ish finish for him.

John Wiedemann

John Wiedemann is the owner, editor and developer of the RacingNation.com website.

A motorsports fan from his earliest memories, John started going to local short tracks and the Milwaukee Mile with his parents, brother and sister. John enjoys drivers racing side by side and battling for the same piece of real estate on the racetrack as much as he appreciates the technical aspects of the sport.

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by John Wiedemann

It’s the drama before the drama at Phoenix Raceway this weekend. With three quarters of the final four drivers set to run for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship, five drivers are left to battle for the final spot. The Can-Am 500 is the final race in the Round of 8 and when the checkers fly, the field will be set for the championship race.

Phoenix Raceway is a one mile oval but adds a twist with a dog-leg back straight that allows drivers to dive low and try to set up a pass into turn three. Being in Arizona, the track can still get hot and sticky in November and the odd shaped oval can be a challenge to the drivers.

This is it for five drivers looking to grab one spot in the championship race. Winning the race would get them in, otherwise it will be a points race. If it comes down to points, stage one and two finishes will be vital in the effort to move forward. Also, at 312 miles, the laps will fly by quickly and track position will be vitally important. Pit calls and quick pit stops will probably be more likely to gain or lose positions than the racing on the track. Mistakes on pit lane will probably doom a team as there will not be time to recover.

With the intensity turned up, here is a look at the Round of 8 drivers.

Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr
They are in. Kyle Busch with his win at Martinsville and Kevin Harvick with his win at Texas have automatically secured their spots in the final four. Martin Truex Jr. is in the final with his points total, something that has been predicted since somewhere around the middle of the season. Truex and the Furniture Row team focused on playoff points this season and that strategy has paid off as they do not have to worry this weekend, they are in.

Brad Keselowski (19 points above cutoff, -10 from last week)
With Kevin Harvick’s win at Texas last weekend, he vaulted over Keselowski to gain a berth in the playoffs and drop Keselowski into the fourth and “bubble” position in the standings. Keselowski also lost ten points in his gap over fifth down to 19 points ahead of Denny Hamlin. Like the others, Keselowski has to perform in the stage endings and pick up points. If one of the four drivers below him wins, Keselowski is out. Otherwise he needs to gain points in the stages, and he just needs to finish well which will make that point differential hard for Hamlin or Ryan Blaney to overcome.

Denny Hamlin (19 points below cutoff, -11) and Ryan Blaney (22 points below cutoff, -16)
Kevin Harvick’s win also made Denny Hamlin’s life more difficult. Hamlin was close in points to Harvick, but now Brad Keselowski is his target, 19 points ahead. Hamlin has to look out below as Ryan Blaney is only three points behind. It is the same story for both Hamlin and Blaney, either win or get as many points as possible and hope that Keselowski falters. Both drivers have had up and down seasons as well as the playoff races so far. Now it is time to go , get to the front and stay there. Hamlin has been in this position before and made it to the final. Blaney hasn’t. My pick – Denny Hamlin will be the final driver to make the Championship 4.

Chase Elliott (49 points below cutoff, -23) and Jimmie Johnson (51 points below cutoff, -48)
The Hendrick Motorsport teammates Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson basically need to win to make the championship round. Almost a race amount of points behind Brad Keselowski in fourth, both drivers are still 20 plus points behind the other two drivers they would need to out point. Unless there is a crash in stage one that takes out Keselowski, Hamlin and Blaney, these guys are looking for the checkered flag. That being said, the youngster among the teammates probably has a better shot at the win. Chase Elliott had the win taken away from him in Martinsville but otherwise has excelled in the playoffs. Great finishes, just a position away from the win, have been the norm for Elliott. Johnson and the #48 team on the other hand has not been the championship contenders they have been in the past. They are a long shot but would not surprise me if they came up with a winning run, I just don’t think this is their year.

John Wiedemann

John Wiedemann is the owner, editor and developer of the RacingNation.com website.

A motorsports fan from his earliest memories, John started going to local short tracks and the Milwaukee Mile with his parents, brother and sister. John enjoys drivers racing side by side and battling for the same piece of real estate on the racetrack as much as he appreciates the technical aspects of the sport.

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by John Wiedemann

On to Texas. That was the sentiment of Chase Elliott after an extremely disappointing end to the race at Martinsville, and pretty much the thoughts of everyone in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, with the exception of Kyle Busch.

With only two shots left to grab a “golden ticket” automatic spot in the playoff finale, we may see the drama from Martinsville carry over to Texas this weekend. Right now the points are tight at the cutoff spot, but as we saw last weekend, the point standings can change in an instant.

Kyle Busch (In the Championship Round)
Kyle Busch is the only one safe after a late race move to take the win at Martinsville and secure a spot in the Final 4. Busch and his team can now prepare for Homestead and not worry about the next two races. But, as Busch explained in a post race interview, winning at Texas or Phoenix can help increase the pressure on the other competitors and not allow them the comfort that he has right now. So, don’t expect Busch to cruise around mid-pack and not care about where he finishes. In fact, a Kyle Busch with nothing to race for but the win just maybe a more difficult competitor than one who has to worry about points. And, you know how much Kyle loves to win.

Martin Truex Jr. (67 points above cutoff, +15 from last week)
While Martin Truex is pretty safe after adding another 15 points to his lead in the standings, most of us thought Kyle Larson was pretty safe to make the championship round. Truex returns to the type of track he has excelled at the last two seasons, the mile and a half.

Jimmie Johnson (3 points below cutoff, -3)
Jimmie Johnson was supposed to be the king at Martinsville, but instead, he was just one of the crowd and dropped three points in the standings. Texas is another track that Johnson is “pretty good” at. “Pretty good” meaning that Johnson has the all-time track records for wins (7), top fives (15) and top 10s (21). And some of that is recent with Johnson winning the spring race this season and four of the last six races at the Texas Motor Speedway. This is the track that Johnson can make up some of the lost ground and get into the top four. Of course, most people expected that to happen last weekend at Martinsville.

Ryan Blaney (6 points below cutoff, +2)
Last weekend wasn’t bad for Ryan Blaney and the Wood Brothers. Running in the top ten most of the day, Blaney was able to gain two points and get a bit closer to the top four in the playoff standings. This weekend should be another chance for the young driver to gain some ground. In the spring race at Texas Blaney captured the first two stage wins while leading a race-high 148 laps. Blaney is on a good roll right now and needs to continue that at Texas. His third place finish at Kansas shows that the mile and a half track program is working good. Look for a solid run this weekend.

Chase Elliott (26 points below cutoff, -15)
Chase Elliott got the raw end of the deal at Martinsville and it will be interesting to see how he responds at Texas. Texas Motor Speedway has been a good track for him, arguably better than Martinsville where he almost won. In the three starts, he’s placed fifth (spring 2016), fourth (fall 2016) and ninth (spring 2017). Among active Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series drivers at Texas, Elliott ranks first in average finish (6.0), second average running position (9.6) and fourth in driver rating (98.3). This will be a good test for the young driver and I expect that he will do well this weekend.

John Wiedemann

John Wiedemann is the owner, editor and developer of the RacingNation.com website.

A motorsports fan from his earliest memories, John started going to local short tracks and the Milwaukee Mile with his parents, brother and sister. John enjoys drivers racing side by side and battling for the same piece of real estate on the racetrack as much as he appreciates the technical aspects of the sport.

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by John Wiedemann

It’s time for Martinsville and the kickoff to the Round of 8 in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series.

With tight turns, there will be wrinkled up fenders and probably even more hurt feelings. Pressure is ramped up this weekend as the championship contending drivers are in need of a good start to the round and others are looking for a good finish to the season.

Martinsville never disappoints when it comes to drama, it just depends on if it is good or bad for the eight championship contenders. A win by one of the eight automatically puts them in the championship race at Homestead. Here is a look at the Round of 8 championship contenders.

Martin Truex Jr. (52 points above cutoff)
Martinsville may be the worst track in the playoffs for Martin Truex Jr. His average finish at the track of 20.391 is seventh best out of the playoff field and only only slightly better than Ryan Blaney’s average of 21. Fortunately, Truex has a lot of points to give him a cushion and his recent runs at the track have shown much improvement. At this race last year Truex won the pole, led 147 laps and finished seventh. In the spring race he qualified third, led 42 laps and finished 16th. Over the last five races he has led laps in four of them and finished in the top seven three times with an average finish of 10.6. Expect Truex to be in the mix all day, as usual.

Kyle Busch (25 points above cutoff)
What a relief it must be for Kyle Busch to put the Round of 12 behind him. Overcoming a poor run at Charlotte and a wreck at Talladega has Busch able to wipe the slate clean in a new round and start out the Round of 8 in second place in the standings. Busch finished second at Martinsville in the spring and led a race high 274 of the 500 laps. Running a streak of four consecutive top five finishes at Martinsville, including a win in last season’s spring race where he dominated with 352 laps led, Kyle will continue to be tough this weekend and will contest for the win.

Brad Keselowski (9 points above cutoff)
This weekend will be key for Brad Keselowski. Martinsville Speedway is Keselowski’s best shot at a win in the next three races and the golden ticket to the championship race. Keselowski won at Martinsville in the spring for his first victory at the track. With an average finish of 12.9 and only three finishes outside of the top ten since 2011, Keselowski knows how to get around the paperclip. Brad is my pick to get the victory and another grandfather clock this weekend.

Kevin Harvick (0 points above cutoff)
Kind of a sleeper in the playoffs so far, Kevin Harvick is doing just enough to make it through the rounds and not get eliminated. With only three top eight finishes in the six races so far Harvick has only led laps at the three 1.5 mile tacks and otherwise hasn’t contended for a victory. I expect the same this weekend as Martinsville hasn’t really been a good track for him. Since joining Stewart Haas Racing Harvick’s best finish has been seventh with two other eighth place finishes in the seven races and an average finish of 16.1. I would expect somewhere around a tenth place finish this weekend with the team looking ahead to Texas as a track where they can shine.

Jimmie Johnson (0 points below cutoff)
Jimmie Johnson is the king of Martinsville with nine race wins there. Well….. he is the king and is the defending champion of this race, but there are others grabbing for the crown. While he got the win last year, he hasn’t led laps in the other five of the last six races and finished 15th this spring. It is the playoffs and the time that Johnson and the Hendrick Motorsports #48 team picks up the pace, but we haven’t really seen that from them, even at Dover where he finished 3rd at a track where he has eleven wins. This is going to be a tough group to come out of as one of the final four and I’m not sure this is Johnson’s year.

Denny Hamlin (3 points below cutoff)
If you are looking for a driver to win at Martinsville, you should have Denny Hamlin on your list. With an average start of 9.7 and average finish of 10.1, you know he is good at this track. Add in five wins, two poles, 12 top five and 17 top ten finishes in 23 starts and Denny is the man. Now throw in the success that Joe Gibbs Racing has at the track and how those Toyotas have been running lately including Hamlin’s current streak in the of three top six finishes and I may want to change my pick for the win. Look for Denny to be there at the end and bump into the top four in the standings when the checkers wave at Martinsville.

Ryan Blaney (8 points below cutoff)
I didn’t expect Ryan Blaney to make it into the Round of 8, but I couldn’t be happier. How cool would it be for Blaney and the Wood Brothers to be in the final four at Homestead. It’s a longshot and it starts this weekend at a track where Blaney doesn’t have much experience and the numbers show it. Blaney finished 19th in both races at Martinsville last year and finished 25th this spring. The good news is his qualifying hasn’t been bad and he started the spring race in seventh. Another qualifying run like that could really boost his chances this weekend. Texas and Phoenix are definitely better tracks for Blaney but he still has a lot to overcome to make the final four.

Chase Elliott (11 points below cutoff)
With teammate Jimmie Johnson being the king at Martinsville, Chase Elliott may be the prince. In four career Cup races at the track, Elliott’s improvement is remarkable. From a finish of 38th in his first race there, Elliott finished 20th in his second, 12th in his third and 3rd after leading 20 laps in the spring.
Elliott has also been great in the playoffs so far with his worst finish coming at Talladega after a crash while running up front. He also has three runner-up finishes to give him an average finish of 6.1. Looking at the numbers, one has to think that first race win should be arriving soon and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it come this weekend or next weekend at Texas.

John Wiedemann

John Wiedemann is the owner, editor and developer of the RacingNation.com website.

A motorsports fan from his earliest memories, John started going to local short tracks and the Milwaukee Mile with his parents, brother and sister. John enjoys drivers racing side by side and battling for the same piece of real estate on the racetrack as much as he appreciates the technical aspects of the sport.

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by John Wiedemann

The Kansas Speedway track may be a typical looking “D” shaped mile and a half oval, but this will not be a typical weekend in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. This weekend is the cutoff race of the Playoffs Round of 12 where four drivers will be cut from Championship contention when the checkers fly.

While Kansas Speedway is a typically shaped 1.5 mile oval, a repave of the surface in 2012 is just starting to get to that weathered point. But the asphalt still has grip and the track is considered one of the “fast” tracks by the drivers with a tricky turn four that can cost you time if you drive it wrong.

400 miles of racing awaits the drivers and at the end of the day only six will join Martin Truex Jr and Brad Keselowski in the Round of 8, who will they be?

Who’s In

Basically just the winners of the last two races, Martin Truex Jr and Brad Keselowski, are safe. Both drivers finished in the top two in the May race at Kansas with Truex leading 104 laps and taking the win. Finishing sixth in that race was Kyle Larson, who has improved his racing at cookie-cutter tracks this season.

Larson has a 29 point lead over Kyle Busch who is currently outside of the cutoff, giving Larson a bit of a cushion. Just behind Larson in the standings is the defending champion of this race, Kevin Harvick. Harvick has a 22 point lead over ninth place in the standings.

Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott are next with Hamlin a point behind Harvick and Elliott a point behind Hamlin. Hamlin was 23rd in the May race and Elliott finished behind him in 29th. Those finishes could put them in jeopardy if they repeat the results this weekend. Hamlin has been running strong with three top six finishes in the Playoff races so far. Elliott has been even better with three second place finishes in the Playoffs including the two mile and a half races.

Baring a catastrophic issue, Harvick, Larson, Hamlin and Elliott should be safe.

And Here Is Where It Gets Interesting

Ryan Blaney, who won his first pole at Kansas in May, is only nine points ahead of ninth place. Blaney finished fourth in the May race and led the second most laps (83). Blaney’s Playoff results so far have been good but not spectacular with three top eleven finishes and a best finish of eighth. As tight as the points are at the cutoff, a top ten is probably necessary for Blaney to make it to the Round of 8.

Jimmie Johnson is next and is currently on the bubble to make the next round. Johnson has three top ten finishes in the Playoffs so far including the races at Chicago and Charlotte. Johnson made the Round of 12 with a third place run at Dover and will likely need to do that again to protect his spot and move forward in the next round.

Kyle Busch, with two disastrous races in this round of the playoffs, currently is outside of the top eight. Just seven points behind Johnson, Busch will need to make things happen in the two stages to gain points. And, he is just the driver to do that. We’ve seen Busch make it happen before as he returned from injury midway through the season and won races to make the Chase and then win the Championship. I expect Busch to get it done this weekend and also win the race.

The last former series champion that is currently on the outside looking in is Matt Kenseth. Kenseth is eight points behind Johnson for a spot to make the Round of 8. Kansas is a track that has cost Kenseth in the past, well it was Logano but it was at Kansas. With a fast Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, I expect Kenseth to have a great weekend and be in contention for the win this weekend. A solid top five could get him in to the next round but it will be very close.

Long Shots

Ricky Stenhouse Jr (-22 points from eighth) and Jamie McMurray (-29 ponts) have a ways to go and would need a lot to happen to point their way into the top eight. Basically they need to win to advance and I just don’t see that happening. McMurray probably has a better shot than Stenhouse and both ran well in the May Kansas race, just not well enough to be considered contenders for a victory.

So, Who Is In?

I told you my top six: Truex, Keselowski, Harvick, Larson, Hamlin and Elliott.
The next two are difficult… I’m picking Busch and Kenseth.
That leaves Johnson and Blaney out, along with McMurray and Stenhouse.

Those are my picks but it will be interesting to see how and if they get there.

John Wiedemann

John Wiedemann is the owner, editor and developer of the RacingNation.com website.

A motorsports fan from his earliest memories, John started going to local short tracks and the Milwaukee Mile with his parents, brother and sister. John enjoys drivers racing side by side and battling for the same piece of real estate on the racetrack as much as he appreciates the technical aspects of the sport.

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It is time for the Talladega “twist” in the playoffs of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series.

This race last season was the final race before the cutoff to the next round of the Chase, but now it has been moved back to allow next week’s event at Kansas Speedway to be the cutoff race and giving drivers a bit of a shot at redemption if all goes awry this weekend.

Stage points will continue to be important as there is only a ten point gap between 12th place Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and 8th place Jamie McMurray.

Expect the standings to look quite a bit different after the Alabama 500.

Safe Drivers?

The only safe driver is Truex. Kyle Larson and Kevin Harvick are doing ok with an over 25 point gap above the cutoff, but a below 30th place finish will erase that gap pretty quickly. As with every driver, running at the front as stage one and two end will be hugely important and you will see the top ten filled with playoff drivers. Those that don’t get points in the stages will be sorry.

A Bit of a Cushion

The next group contains Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch. These drivers are between 16 and 12 points above the cutoff. These guys normally run well at Talladega and will need to be up in the top ten all race long to protect their standing positions. Busch had his issues last week at Charlotte which erased most of his banked points advantage. That was a one time deal for Busch, if he has problems at Talladega, next week will be a must win.

The Bubble

Drivers are piled up on the bubble and this is where you will see the most action and change in standings. Champion Jimmie Johnson is in danger of repeating as he currently sits eight points ahead of the cutoff in seventh and bubble driver Jamie McMurray is just one point ahead of Matt Kenseth who is currently out of the top eight. All three of those drivers have and can win at Talladega with McMurray and Kenseth both showing speed lately.

The driver I am picking to win this weekend, Brad Keselowski, is two points below the cutoff. Keselowski had a bad Charlotte race, which is why he is in this position, and hasn’t really been the Keselowski of previous seasons. But four wins at Talladega and a fourth best average finish at the track should give him solid confidence this weekend. Now is the time for him to go, and I believe he will.

Ryan Blaney (-5 points to cutoff) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr (-10) are next in the standings. While Blaney hasn’t been running up front much lately, Stenhouse has been improving and now returns to his favorite type of track this season, a super speedway. With wins in the last two of the three restrictor plate races this season so far, Stenhouse is a favorite coming to Talladega. But this race is so dependent on luck, can Stenhouse really sweep the Talladega races? He has the speed and luck seems to be on his side. A Stenhouse win would flip the standings upside down, and that would be fun.

John Wiedemann

John Wiedemann is the owner, editor and developer of the RacingNation.com website.

A motorsports fan from his earliest memories, John started going to local short tracks and the Milwaukee Mile with his parents, brother and sister. John enjoys drivers racing side by side and battling for the same piece of real estate on the racetrack as much as he appreciates the technical aspects of the sport.

RacingNation.com

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by John Wiedemann

Sunday afternoon is the final race of the “Round of 16” in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. After the checkers fly at Dover International Speedway, the playoff field will be cut by four drivers down to twelve contenders for the championship.

In the Chase/Playoff era, only Championship contenders have won this race. Also, a rookie hasn’t won at Dover since Jimmie Johnson swept the Dover races in 2002. In fact, experience has prevailed in victory lane at Dover for a while now. That may change as Kyle Larson led a race high 241 laps on his way to finishing second in June. In that race, young gun Chase Elliott finished fifth, rookie Daniel Suarez was sixth, Dillon brothers ran well with Austin 13th and Ty 14th (leading 27 laps), and rookie Erik Jones finished 15th. Of course Jimmie Johnson won, but the youngsters showed up well.

So, who is going to make the cut? Here are the drivers to watch…

Truex, Kyle Busch, Larson & Keselowski Are In!
Martin Truex Jr. is moving into the next round based on his win at Chicagoland, bringing a treasure chest of playoff points with him. Even though he is in, look for the defending champion of this race to run up front, grab playoff points and probably the win. Kyle Busch is set with last week’s victory, but he would like the playoff points to himself and will give Truex a challenge. Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski have enough points that they are guaranteed to move to the next round. Larson will also challenge for stage wins as well as the overall win. Keselowski will be interesting to see how he runs. Brad has run well consistently, but challenging for the race win is what I want to see him do as we start to move deeper in the playoffs.

These guys are safe, well… they should be…
Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth are above the cutoff position by forty plus points. They should be fine with a top twenty finish, likely a top thirty finish. Jimmie Johnson has a 32 point cushion and Ryan Blaney (26 points), Chase Elliott (26) and Kevin Harvick (25) are pretty well above the cut line also. It would take a couple of lower placed playoff drivers having a spectacular race and these guys having issues to knock them out. Harvick had his wreck affect him at New Hampshire and he still is in a good position, but he sure doesn’t want that to happen again. A solid and typical run by these drivers sets them up to advance to the next round.

This is where it gets interesting…
Jamie McMurray is nine points to the positive in eleventh place. To get eliminated, two drivers would need to pass McMurray with no one above falling down. The problem is that there are three drivers within ten points of McMurray. All he needs is to make sure he stays ahead of Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman on the track. It’s a simple plan, but tough to make happen. Expect those positions to bounce around during the race, especially for Stenhouse, Dillon and Newman who are within a point of each other.

Long shots
Both Kurt Busch and Kasey Kahne had two playoff races that they did not want and now they are at the bottom of the standings. Busch still has an outside shot by points racing. Seventeen points back, Busch would need a top five run and have the trio of Stenhouse, Dillon and Newman finish poorly, it’s definitely a long shot. Kahne is worse off, being 21 points behind and would also have to out point the trio listed above and Busch. Obviously a win for either would get them in.

My overall prediction is Truex wins the race and the four drivers that get eliminated will be Kahne, Kurt Busch, Stenhouse and Dillon. This weekend at Dover should be fun and full of drama.

John Wiedemann

John Wiedemann is the owner, editor and developer of the RacingNation.com website.

A motorsports fan from his earliest memories, John started going to local short tracks and the Milwaukee Mile with his parents, brother and sister. John enjoys drivers racing side by side and battling for the same piece of real estate on the racetrack as much as he appreciates the technical aspects of the sport.

RacingNation.com

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The final race of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series regular season is set for this Saturday night as the Richmond Raceway hosts the Federated Auto Parts 400.

With the playoff field basically set points wise, some of the high stakes drama of years past in this race will be missing as the only thing that would upset the apple cart would be a win by a driver outside the top 16 in points.

Amongst those top 16 points drivers, Chase Elliott, Matt Kenseth, and Jamie McMurray are locked in a battle between themselves to not be 16th in points and on the hot seat should an outside driver win the race.

There are still plenty of drivers outside the top 16 that could get the job done but lately the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota teams have come on strong, winning four of the last seven races after going winless for the first half of the season.

The formula for this event is simple, those outside the top 16 need to win to get in and those locked in on points need to win to gather valuable playoff points.

With everybody going for broke with nothing to lose, the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond on Saturday night should be exciting and here are some drivers to watch…

Joey Logano — Joey Logano won the last Monster Energy Cup race here at Richmond last April and appeared to be well on his way to the playoffs. However, following the race, his points and playoff qualification were stripped from the team after the car failed post-race technical inspection. Since then, Logano hasn’t been as strong and now finds himself in desperate need of a win at Richmond to make the playoff field. He’s listed at 20-1 odds and his record at Richmond is pretty good with two victories, six top fives, and nine top ten finishes. Logano has his back against the wall this week with only one goal which is to win the race and Saturday night will tell if his team is up to the challenge. Look for Joey Logano to make a charge toward the playoffs Saturday night only this time the car better pass the technical inspection.

Clint Bowyer — Another driver in the need to win to get in category is Clint Bowyer who has run strong all season but has yet to find victory lane in his first season driving for Tony Stewart. Bowyer has two wins at Richmond to go along with four top fives and twelve top tens in his 23 starts. So far in 2017, Bowyer has posted three second place finishes and two third place results but on Saturday night, the only way he advances to the playoffs is by winning the race. All year we’ve been waiting for Clint Bowyer and the #14 team to break into victory lane as they were expected to be a playoff contender. Saturday night is their last chance and they will be in “win at all cost” playoff mode a week early. At 25-1 odds this week, watch for Clint Bowyer to be part of the story in one form or another on Saturday night.

Matt Kenseth — With Joe Gibbs Racing teams winning four of the last seven races, you would think one of these weeks would be Matt Kenseth’s turn to be in victory lane. He has run very well and has consistently been in the top ten but has yet to find victory lane this year which would make a win on Saturday night a great way to head into the playoffs. Kenseth does have to make sure he stays ahead of Chase Elliott and Jamie McMurray to ensure his playoff berth by points as well but I really feel this team is ready to win. Throw in the fact that Kenseth is still looking for a job next season and the prospect of a victory on Saturday becomes all that more important. Kenseth has been good at Richmond, owning two victories, six top fives, and sixteen top tens, plus he led the most laps here back in April. He is listed at 8-1 odds this week and should be considered one of the favorites on Saturday.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – If you’re looking for a story book ending on Saturday, then a win by Dale Earnhardt Jr. in his absolute final chance to make the playoffs in his last season of competition would be just that. If Dale Earnhardt Jr. ever wants to be a Cup champion then he must win this race. It’s that simple as he needs that victory to first get into the playoffs and have a shot at the championship. The on track performance so far this season doesn’t bode well for this scenario and it’s reflected in his odds to win which pegs him as a 100-1 long shot this weekend. In his career at Richmond, Dale Jr. has three wins, ten top fives and fourteen top ten finishes, making the Richmond Raceway one of his best tracks. Crazier things have happened but the fans would just about tear down the grandstands if Dale Earnhardt Jr. won this race on Saturday night and all I’m saying is…there’s a chance.

Dan Margetta

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It’s NASCAR’s Throwback Weekend as the historic Darlington Raceway hosts the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Bojangle’s Southern 500 on Sunday night under the lights.

Darlington’s unique shape with turns 1 & 2 being completely different than 3&4 make it a drivers race track. “Darlington Stripes” from where the drivers scrape the wall as they try to keep as much speed as possible through the turns will be featured on the left side of almost every car in the field. The track “Too Tough to Tame” and the Southern 500 is on the list of tracks that every driver wants to win at so he or she can join the legends who have already conquered “The Lady in Black.”

There is only one race left after Darlington to try to grab a coveted automatic bid in the playoffs with a win, plus there are still playoff points on the line and with three spots open the drama will be ratcheted up. Here are some drivers to watch in the Southern 500 Sunday night…

Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. and his #78 Toyota seem to be able to find their way to the front at almost every track this season. So, when the Furniture Row team heads back to a track they won at last season, the rest of the field knows they are in trouble. The Southern 500 could very well become the Truex show on Sunday night but he has run so well this season that he really only needs to finish 17th to lock up the number one spot at the end of the regular season and adding 15 more playoff bonus points to his already staggering total. Truex has an average finish of 11.6 at the “Lady In Black” and just continues to get better and better in 2017. I’m thinking another win or at least a top five is in the cards this weekend for Truex. Quick Note: See what 28 NASCAR drivers are doing to support the Martin Truex Jr Foundation’s “Drive for Teal & Gold” campaign.

Matt Kenseth
Of the drivers vying for the three “wild card” spots currently available for the playoffs, Matt Kenseth is the only one who has won at Darlington (in 2013). Kenseth has a series third-best average finish at the track of 10.667. Running much better in recent races, Kenseth has improved his position to 61 points ahead of the cutoff line and three points ahead of the driver on the “bubble”, Jamie McMurray. Kenseth has finished in the top ten in five of the last six races and in the top five in four of those. Unless there are two new 2017 winners in the next two races, Kenseth is pretty well set to make the playoffs. The way he is running right now, he should be pretty tough in them.

Joey Logano
Darlington hasn’t been a very fun track for Joey Logano. In eight career starts, his best finish is fourth, in 2015. Logano also has four finishes of 22nd or worse. This does not bode well for the driver than needs a win in the next two races to make the playoffs. It has been an un-Logano like season for the Penske driver, a fourth place finish at Indianapolis five races ago was a hopeful point, but the next four races have produced an average finish of 23rd with the best finish of 13th two weeks ago at Bristol. There isn’t much time left to grab a win or make this a forgettable season. Logano is a great driver at a great organization and a victory at Darlington this weekend or more likely at Richmond next weekend wouldn’t be a surprise, but this season so far sure has been.

Young Guns
Eleven different winners have won the last eleven races at Darlington Raceway. Will it be 12 in 12 this weekend? And, could the winner be a series first time winner? Chase Elliott, Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones are among drivers hoping that this could come true. Elliott has raced twice at Darlington and made the jump from a 41st place finish in 2015 to a 10th place run last year. A jump from 10th to first may not be out of the question. Chase’s dad Bill Elliott knows how to win at Darlington and did it five times. Suarez finished third both times he raced at Darlington in the Xfinity Series and has been running great lately. Running great defines Jones as he nabbed the pole at Bristol and finished second to Bristol Master Kyle Busch. Jones has a streak of ten races where he has finished in the top ten. The young guns are going to be fun to watch this weekend as they are tested by the track “Too Tough to Tame”.

Cole Whitt
Everyone will have their favorites amongst the throwback paint schemes. There are the Earnhardt, Petty and Smokey Yunick tributes – which are all cool, don’t get me wrong. I like pretty much all of them, but I like a story too. I believe the best story is with Cole Whitt’s paint scheme. It won’t be hard to pick out the #72 Chevrolet, the paint scheme is known as the “Lime Green Machine”. It’s a pretty simple/classic scheme… all lime green with a white number outlined in black, a bit of a black stripe on the hood and the sponsor on the side is Ted Whitt Plumbing. Cole’s grandfather was the owner of Ted Whitt Plumbing and when he wasn’t running the business, he was running the 3/8 mile Cajon Speedway. “Gentleman Jim Whitt” won the track championship at Cajon Speedway in 1969 and his son Tobin, Cole’s dad, won the track championship 20 years later in the “Lime Green Machine”. The throwback paint scheme is in honor of the 1972-73 Chevy Chevelle driven by Whitt’s grandfather at Cajon Speedway and also the races he ran in the NASCAR Winston Cup West Series. Cole Whitt will be one to watch at Darlington in the family colors of the “Lime Green Machine”. He’ll be hard to miss.

RacingNation Crew

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